Which car manufacturer do you predict being the first to the market with a fully AV (autonomous vehicle)? Why?
I don’t see any one manufacturer leading in this area, while Mercedes has made huge progress in AV’s, the VW group (with Audi) are also forging ahead and I believe that the majority of high end manufacturers will all have an AV strategy going forwards, lead primarily by the luxury manufacturers due to the cost implication that have to filter down to the end use.
– Charlie Turner (TopGear)
The Navia shipped in 2014, so it was first. Google will be next, but they’re not a car maker. The car makers keep saying they don’t want to make such a car. The most advanced companies at present are Daimler, BMW, Tesla, Audi/VW, Volvo, Nissan, Ford, Toyota in roughly that order, but that may not decide who releases first, which would probably be Tesla. The non-car projects in Singapore and the UK will also appear first, before any major car maker.
– Brad Templeton (Singularity University)
Driverless Vehicle ‘Navia’ Cruising Singapore Streets (source: TheVoltReport)
This is a real crap shoot. Historically most technological innovations have come from High End car manufacturers. Until Toyota’s Prius. Now it seems everyone can have a hybrid in their lineup. Yes , Mercedes Benz products are offering hands free driving , but Hyundai’s can drive themselves for short distances too..
Recently we’ve been hearing a lot about Apple and Google making their own car. Personally I don’t think this will happen. I believe they’ll partner up with a manufacturer like Audi or Mercedes or even Toyota. Last year Audi ran a self piloted 7 series around a couple of race tracks. A couple of years ago Volvo was making a lot of noise about its’ pedestrian avoidance programming. Self driving is just a hop skip and a jump from there.
Back in 2007 I went to the DARPA Grand Challenge event at Victorville Airport in the Mojave Desert. Fully autonomous cars turned loose in a real world-like neighbourhood. Only six out of the twenty-odd teams finished. The rest ended up looking like “bad parking” viral videos – cars going back and forth and getting no where.
Who? Honestly? No idea. But I couldn’t count out Toyota or Hyundai. BMW is too small. I haven’t seen a lot of original research coming from Mercedes. Maybe Audi.
– Rob Davidson (Wheels on Edge)
Hard to say and the first mover advantage won’t be too meaningful as I don’t think any one carmaker is going to own the self-driving position in the market. This will be more like automatic transmissions, something that becomes the price of admission in the market and not a first mover advantage for long.
– Brian Cooley (CNET on Cars)
Mercedes-Benz: Intelligent Drive is a fine example, with on board cameras to spot vehicles, objects and pedestrians. When any of those are detected, Intelligent Drive can activate 100% braking power and sound an alarm to warn the driver, helping to reduce the odds of a collision.
The central figure is the windshield planted stereo camera and radar that scans the landscape ahead in 3D. The camera has a range of 1,600 feet with a 45 degree spread while the radar features two different views: a 100 ft. range, left to right and a 200 ft. range to the rear. All the data those components internalize puts the car on high alert at all times. Consider Intelligent Drive like eyes and ears.
Mercedes-Benz attempts not to just react but rather predict.
– Carl Anthony (Automoblog.net)
Tesla. Because I think they’ll rush to put one on the market just for the PR value of being first.
– Gerry Malloy (Autofile)
Audi A7 Connect Driverless Car (source: T3 Hot 100)
I think it’s going to be Audi. They’re pushing hard in that space, and recently had an A7 drive from San Francisco to Las Vegas pretty much on its own.
– Jeff Glucker (Hooniverse)
Tesla. They have the car-building experience, the need of exposure, the brainz and, mainly, the balls.
– Nino Karotta (Auto Journalist)
I believe it’ll be a non-traditional car company…perhaps a Google or similar. At the same time, I don’t necessarily believe that being ‘first’ is going to be all that critical. Consumer trust in the product will be a key.
– Steve Hammes (Test Drive Now)
Mercedes and Tesla have come the closest so far. So I’d imagine that if we get to a point where the Government starts allowing privately owned AV’s, those two will be ready.
– Matt Farah (The Smoking Tire)
Hah! This is a tough one! See, Toyota and Honda likely have the capability to make it happen. However, nowadays they play everything safe. There’s a chance they’ll wait until someone else becomes the guinea pig and then they’ll jump in and make their own when they know there’s a market and they can make money off it. Chevrolet might be it. They seem to take the biggest risks on some of the craziest ideas (and therefore end up losing a lot of money). That said, even amongst all the recalls, they seem to pull off progressive things such as the Chevy Volt.
– Danny Cruz (RallyWays)
Daimler, Nissan, GM, BMW – one of these most likely.
Possibly Tesla, but they have has some bigger problems to solve right now, so I’m not sure full autonomy will be their main focus.
– John Voelcker (Green Car Reports)
Bringing an autonomous vehicle to market isn’t about the vehicle itself; they already exist. What will determine the AV’s viability is infrastructure and legislation, along with the climate where they’re being sold, at least until engineers figure out how to overcome the difficulties associated with snow-covered roads and sensors. If an AV is going to come to market, I suspect it will first do so in Japan, and based on the experimental models I’ve seen, I think it might be Honda or Nissan.
– Jil McIntosh (Woman on Wheels)